# Iceberg Model

> Look under a recurring problem for the patterns and beliefs that keep producing it.

Chapter I, Systems thinking · 1.01 · Origin: Systems thinking practice, popularised by Peter Senge and colleagues (1990s) · Time: 20 to 40 min · Solo or group

**Use it when** the same problem keeps coming back and you want what lies beneath it.

Interactive workspace: https://kogu.tools/tools/iceberg-model

## Abstract

Most of what you notice is an event: a missed deadline, a sudden jump in complaints. The iceberg model treats that as the tip. Below it is a pattern, because this has happened before. Below the pattern are the structures that make it likely, such as an incentive or the way work gets handed over. At the bottom are the beliefs that keep those structures in place.

Responding to the event buys you a week. If you want the problem to stop coming back, you have to change something lower down, usually a rule or an assumption nobody has questioned in a while.

## Method

1. **Start with the event.** Write down what happened in plain terms. Stick to what was observed and leave blame out of it.
2. **Look for the pattern.** Has this happened before? Check the last few months for repeats, and for anything that tends to happen just before it.
3. **Find the structures.** Ask what makes the pattern likely. Look at incentives, deadlines, handoffs and how the work is set up.
4. **Name the beliefs.** Ask what people assume that keeps those structures as they are. Write each one the way someone would actually say it, like "we can't ship without QA signing off".
5. **Choose where to act.** Pick the level you'll change. A change to a structure or a belief usually outlasts another response to the event.

## When to use it

- The same problem keeps coming back after it's been fixed.
- A team spends most of its week firefighting and wants to know why the fires start.
- You need to explain why a quick fix won't hold.

## Common pitfalls

- Stopping at the pattern. Knowing that something repeats doesn't tell you why it repeats.
- Naming people as the structure. Look at the rules and incentives that shape what they do.
- Writing beliefs as accusations. Most of them made sense once and have simply outlived their use.
- Doing it once and filing it away. Come back to it after you've tried a change and see what moved.

## References

- Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Doubleday.
- Senge, P. M., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R. B., & Smith, B. J. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. Currency Doubleday.
- Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing.