# Pre-mortem

> Imagine the project has already failed, then work out why.

Chapter II, Decision making · 2.11 · Origin: Gary Klein (2007) · Time: 30 to 60 min · Group

**Use it when** a plan is about to start and nobody has said what could go wrong.

Interactive workspace: https://kogu.tools/tools/pre-mortem

## Abstract

Before a project starts, people tend to keep their doubts to themselves. The plan hangs together and everyone wants it to work. A pre-mortem asks the team to assume it has already failed and to explain what went wrong.

Because the failure is taken as given, pointing out a problem counts as helping. Research on prospective hindsight suggests that imagining an outcome as certain helps people come up with more reasons for it. You end up with a ranked list of risks, each with someone responsible for it.

## Method

1. **Brief the plan.** Make sure everyone knows the goal and the timeline. Keep it short.
2. **Jump ahead to the failure.** Say that it's now some months later and the project has failed badly. Nobody debates whether it failed, only why.
3. **Write reasons alone.** Give everyone a few minutes to write down every reason they can think of before anyone speaks.
4. **Collect them one at a time.** Go round the group, one reason per person per turn, until the lists run out. Start with the most junior person.
5. **Rate and rank.** Score each reason for likelihood and impact, then multiply the two to rank the risks.
6. **Plan the response.** For each of the top risks, agree how to reduce it and who owns it. Note an early warning sign to watch for as well.

## When to use it

- Before you commit serious time or money to a project.
- When a plan has a lot of momentum and nobody is questioning it.
- Before a launch or a migration, or anything else that's hard to undo.

## Common pitfalls

- Running it after the plan is locked, when nothing can change.
- Letting the most senior person speak first and set the tone.
- Collecting risks with no owner and no warning sign, so nothing happens afterwards.
- Listing only outside causes. Include the failures that would be your own fault.

## References

- Klein, G. (2007). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review, 85(9).
- Mitchell, D. J., Russo, J. E., & Pennington, N. (1989). Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(1).
- Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.