Abstract
When a problem keeps coming back, there's often a loop holding it in place: A pushes on B, B pushes on C, and C pushes on A again. A connection circle is a quick way to find those loops. You put a handful of nouns around a circle and draw arrows between the ones that directly affect each other.
Each arrow gets a sign. Plus means the second thing moves in the same direction as the first, and minus means it moves the opposite way. Follow the arrows round a closed loop and count the minus signs. An even number makes it a reinforcing loop, which amplifies change. An odd number makes it a balancing loop, which damps it down.
Method
- 01
Name the behaviour
Write down what you want to understand, like a backlog that keeps growing or a goal that keeps slipping.
- 02
Pick the elements
Choose up to ten nouns that can go up or down and play a part in the story. Place them around the circle.
- 03
Draw the causes
For each pair, ask whether a change in one directly changes the other. If it does, draw an arrow from cause to effect.
- 04
Mark the direction
Label each arrow + when both move the same way and − when they move in opposite directions.
- 05
Trace the loops
Follow the arrows until you get back to where you started. Count the minus signs to tell reinforcing loops from balancing ones.
When to use it
- A problem has survived several fixes and seems to come back stronger each time.
- A team keeps arguing about the single cause of something that clearly has several.
- You're about to change something in a system and want to know where a change would do the most.
Common pitfalls
- Using actions as elements. 'Hire' can't go up or down, but 'headcount' can.
- Drawing indirect links. If A only affects C through B, draw it through B.
- Adding everything you can think of. Past about ten elements the picture gets hard to read.
- Treating a loop as proof. It's a guess about how the system works, so check it against what actually happens.
Origin and references
Attributed to Rob Quaden and Alan Ticotsky (2004).
- Quaden, R., & Ticotsky, A. (2004). The Shape of Change. Creative Learning Exchange.
- The Systems Thinker. Learning about connection circles.