Tools for thought.
64 thinking frameworks, from the Eisenhower Matrix to Fermi estimates, each with a page you can work in.
01Where to begin
What are you stuck on?
Pick whichever is closest. Each one suggests three tools to try first.
I
I have to choose
Two or more options and no clear favourite.
II
There is too much to do
Everything feels urgent at once.
III
Something keeps going wrong
The same problem keeps coming back.
V
We disagree
And both sides have a point.
VI
I have to explain something
To someone who doesn't have much time.
VII
I want to see the system
Lots of moving parts affecting each other.
VIII
The future is uncertain
You can't tell yet how it will play out.
IX
I want to grow
Building a habit or getting better at something.
02Index
The full index.
Every tool comes with a short note on when it's useful.
64 tools
Systems thinking
For problems that come from how things are connected.
No.ToolUse it when
1.01Iceberg ModelLook under a recurring problem for the patterns and beliefs that keep producing it.Use it whenThe same problem keeps coming back and you want what lies beneath it.1.02Connection CirclesDraw how the parts of a problem affect each other and find the loops.Use it whenA problem resists every fix and seems to feed itself.1.03Reinforcing Feedback LoopSee why some things grow or decline faster and faster over time.Use it whenSomething is growing or collapsing faster and faster.1.04Balancing Feedback LoopSee how a system corrects toward a goal, and why delays make it overshoot.Use it whenA system keeps resisting change or drifting back to where it was.1.05Concept MapDraw the ideas in a subject and label how each one connects to the others.Use it whenYou need to see how the ideas in a topic relate to each other.1.06Force Field AnalysisList the forces pushing for a change and the ones holding it back.Use it whenA change is stuck and you want to know what holds it in place.1.07Bottleneck AnalysisFind the one step that limits the whole process and fix that first.Use it whenWork piles up and more effort doesn't make anything faster.1.08Futures WheelMap what follows from a change, then what follows from that.Use it whenYou want to trace the ripple effects of a change before it happens.1.09Goodhart's LawCheck how a metric could be gamed before you tie rewards to it.Use it whenYou are about to set a target, a metric or an incentive.Decision making
For choosing between options when the answer isn't obvious.
No.ToolUse it when
2.01Six Thinking HatsLook at a decision from six angles, one at a time, as a group.Use it whenA discussion is stuck between the optimists and the sceptics.2.02Eisenhower MatrixSort tasks by urgency and importance, then handle each group differently.Use it whenYour list is longer than your day.2.03Second-order ThinkingFollow a decision past its first consequence by asking what happens after that.Use it whenA choice looks good today and you want to know what follows.2.04Decision MatrixScore each option against weighted criteria and compare the totals.Use it whenYou are choosing between several options on several factors.2.05Impact-Effort MatrixRate options by value and effort, then start with the quick wins.Use it whenYou have more ideas than time and need an order of work.2.06Ladder of InferenceRetrace how you got from what happened to what you now believe.Use it whenYou may be jumping to conclusions about people or events.2.07Hard Choice ModelSort a decision by type to see how much effort it deserves.Use it whenYou are unsure how much time a decision deserves.2.08OODA LoopObserve, orient, decide and act in short cycles when you can't wait for full information.Use it whenThings move fast and you have to act before all the facts are in.2.09Cynefin FrameworkWork out what kind of situation you're in before choosing how to respond.Use it whenYou need to know what kind of situation you are in before acting.2.10Confidence Determines Speed vs. QualityUse how sure you are of the problem and the solution to choose between speed and polish.Use it whenYou must choose between shipping fast and building it right.2.11Pre-mortemImagine the project has already failed, then work out why.Use it whenA plan is about to start and nobody has said what could go wrong.2.12Expected ValueWeigh each possible outcome by its probability to compare uncertain options.Use it whenOutcomes are uncertain but you can estimate the odds.2.13Bayesian UpdatingStart from a base rate and adjust your confidence as each piece of evidence arrives.Use it whenNew evidence arrives and you want to change your mind by the right amount.2.1410/10/10Think through how each option will feel in ten minutes, ten months and ten years.Use it whenShort-term feelings are clouding a long-term choice.2.15SWOT AnalysisList what's working for and against you, then turn the lists into a plan.Use it whenYou are setting strategy for a team, a product or yourself.2.16Circle of ControlSort what's bothering you by how much of it you can actually change.Use it whenWorry is spread across things you cannot change.2.17What Would Have to Be TrueTurn a debate over options into a list of conditions you can test.Use it whenA strategy looks attractive and you need to know what it rests on.2.18Sunk Cost CheckDecide whether to keep going based only on the costs still ahead.Use it whenPast investment is making it hard to walk away.2.19Calibration PracticePut a number on how sure you are, then track how often you're right.Use it whenYou want your confidence to match how often you are right.2.20Knowns and UnknownsSort what you know and don't, including the questions nobody has asked.Use it whenYou are planning under uncertainty and want to see your blind spots.Problem solving
For finding out why something went wrong and what to do about it.
No.ToolUse it when
3.01Ishikawa DiagramLay out the possible causes of a problem on a fishbone, then pick the likely ones.Use it whenYou need to list every possible cause of a problem before choosing one.3.02Abstraction LadderingReword a problem at higher and lower levels until you find a better one to solve.Use it whenThe problem statement feels too narrow or too vague.3.03Conflict Resolution DiagramMap a two-sided conflict and find the assumption that keeps it stuck.Use it whenTwo sides want incompatible things and both seem right.3.04Zwicky BoxSplit a problem into parameters and combine options across them to get new ideas.Use it whenYou need many new options rather than one idea.3.05Productive Thinking ModelA six-step route from a vague problem to a plan with owners and dates.Use it whenYou want a full path from a messy problem to an action plan.3.06InversionWork out how you'd guarantee failure, then check you aren't doing any of it.Use it whenThe way to succeed is unclear but failure is easy to imagine.3.07Issue TreesBreak a big question into smaller parts until each one can be answered.Use it whenA big question needs breaking into parts you can work on.3.08First PrinciplesBreak a problem down to what you know is true and rebuild from there.Use it whenEveryone repeats how it has always been done.3.09Five WhysKeep asking why a problem happened until you reach a cause you can fix.Use it whenA problem has a clear symptom and you want its root cause quickly.3.10Pareto AnalysisFind the few causes behind most of a problem, and fix those first.Use it whenMany causes compete and you need the few that matter most.3.11SCAMPERCome up with new ideas by changing an existing thing in seven specific ways.Use it whenYou want to improve an existing product, process or idea.3.12Is / Is Not AnalysisPin down a problem by comparing where it happens with where it could but doesn't.Use it whenA problem shows up in some places and not in others.3.13PDCA CycleImprove something in small loops of plan, do, check and act.Use it whenYou want to improve something through small, tested steps.3.14Fermi EstimationEstimate a number you can't look up by breaking it into parts you can guess.Use it whenYou need a number quickly and there is no data to look up.3.15Occam's RazorWhen explanations fit equally well, prefer the one with fewer assumptions.Use it whenSeveral explanations fit and you need one to act on.3.16Professional LensesLook at a problem the way 25 different professions would.Use it whenYou are stuck seeing a problem from only one angle.3.175SAudit a physical or digital space against five Japanese rules of order.Use it whenA workspace or process has become cluttered and slow.3.18SubtractionImprove something by removing parts before you think about adding new ones.Use it whenThe instinct is to add something and you suspect less would be better.Communication
For explaining things clearly and handling difficult conversations.
No.ToolUse it when
4.01Situation-Behavior-ImpactGive feedback by describing one specific moment and its effect.Use it whenYou need to give feedback that doesn't sound like judgement.4.02Minto PyramidPut your answer first, then the few arguments that support it.Use it whenYou have to explain a recommendation to busy people.4.03SteelmanningRestate the other side's view at its strongest before you disagree.Use it whenYou disagree with someone and want to argue fairly.4.04Feynman TechniqueCheck that you understand something by explaining it in plain words.Use it whenYou want to check whether you really understand something.4.05Nonviolent CommunicationSay what happened, how you feel, what you need and what you'd like, without blame.Use it whenA conversation is charged and you want to be heard.4.06Johari WindowCompare how you see yourself with how other people see you.Use it whenA team wants to build trust and self-awareness.4.07Stakeholder MapPlot everyone a change affects by how much power and interest they have.Use it whenA project depends on people with different power and interests.4.08ADKAR ModelFind where a change is stuck by checking five stages people go through.Use it whenA change is stalling and you need to know where people are stuck.4.09Story SpineTurn an explanation into a story where each event causes the next.Use it whenYou need to explain a situation as a story people will follow.4.10Mood BoardShow the look and feel of a project before anything gets made.Use it whenYou need others to feel the look and tone you have in mind before anything is made.Learning and growth
For building habits and working out what to spend your time on.
No.ToolUse it when
5.01IkigaiMap what you love, what you're good at, what's needed and what pays.Use it whenYou are deciding what work to spend your life on.5.02Tiny HabitsBuild a habit by making it tiny and attaching it to an existing routine.Use it whenYou want a new habit that actually sticks.5.03Twelve Favorite ProblemsKeep a dozen open questions in mind and check new ideas against them.Use it whenYour curiosity is scattered and you want it to compound.5.04Morning PagesWrite three pages of whatever's on your mind, first thing each morning.Use it whenYour head is crowded and you need to clear it before you can think.5.05Dreyfus Model of Skill AcquisitionWork out which of five skill stages you're at, then practise to suit it.Use it whenYou want to know what will move a skill to the next stage.5.06Luck Surface AreaMake it likelier that opportunities find you by doing more and sharing it.Use it whenYou want more good opportunities to find you.5.07Stated vs. Revealed PreferencesCompare what you say matters with where your time and money actually go.Use it whenWhat you say matters and where your time goes don't match.