Abstract
A change rarely stops at its first consequence. The futures wheel puts the change in the middle of the page and asks what follows directly from it. Each answer then gets the same question, and the wheel grows outward in rings.
The first ring is usually what people already talk about. The second and third rings are where the surprises turn up, like a benefit nobody planned for or a problem nobody owns. Marking each consequence as positive, negative or uncertain shows you where to prepare.
Method
- 01
Put the change in the middle
Write the decision or trend as a short statement at the centre of the page.
- 02
Draw the first ring
Ask what happens directly because of the change. Write each answer around the centre and link it.
- 03
Draw the second ring
For each first-ring consequence, ask what follows from it, and link the answers outward.
- 04
Go one ring further
Do it again for the most important branches. Three rings is usually enough.
- 05
Tag and plan
Mark each consequence as positive, negative or uncertain, then plan responses for the important negative and uncertain ones.
When to use it
- You're about to make a decision that will affect people outside your team.
- A trend is starting and you want to think through what it could mean for you.
- A group keeps circling the obvious first consequences.
Common pitfalls
- Stopping at the first ring, which mostly repeats what everyone already knows.
- Writing vague consequences. Each one should be specific enough to plan for.
- Reading the wheel as a forecast. It shows what could happen without saying how likely it is.
- Following only the negative branches. Second-order opportunities deserve the same attention.
Origin and references
Attributed to Jerome C. Glenn (1971).
- Glenn, J. C. (2009). The Futures Wheel. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project.
- Glenn, J. C. (1972). Futurizing teaching vs. futures course. Social Science Record, 9(3).