Abstract
A lot of bad calls come from using the wrong approach for the situation. A checklist that works for routine problems makes things worse in a crisis, and no amount of expert analysis will tell you how people will react to something new.
Cynefin (a Welsh word, pronounced kuh-NEV-in, usually translated as habitat) sorts situations by how cause and effect relate. In clear situations the answer is obvious. In complicated ones an expert can work it out. In complex ones you only see cause and effect afterwards, so you run small experiments. In chaotic ones you act first to get things stable. In the middle sits confusion, when you can't tell which of these you're in.
Method
- 01
Describe the situation
Write down what's happening and the decision you face, without jumping to a solution.
- 02
Ask how cause and effect relate
Is the answer obvious, or could an expert work it out? Will you only understand it in hindsight, or is everything moving too fast to tell?
- 03
Place it in a domain
Clear, complicated, complex or chaotic. If you can't decide, you're in confusion.
- 04
Split mixed situations
Most real problems have parts in more than one domain. Place each part on its own.
- 05
Respond to fit the domain
Sense, categorise and respond when clear. Sense, analyse and respond when complicated. Probe, sense and respond when complex. Act, sense and respond when chaotic.
When to use it
- An approach that usually works keeps failing, and you suspect the situation isn't what you assumed.
- A team is split between doing more analysis and running more experiments.
- You're in a crisis and need to decide whether to stabilise things or think first.
Common pitfalls
- Using it as a neat two by two grid. The edges are fuzzy and situations move between domains.
- Treating a complex problem as merely complicated, and paying for analysis when only experiments will teach you anything.
- Getting comfortable in the clear domain. A long run of routine success can hide a change until things suddenly fall apart.
- Staying in crisis mode after things have settled.
Origin and references
Attributed to Dave Snowden (1999).
- Kurtz, C. F., & Snowden, D. J. (2003). The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Systems Journal, 42(3), 462-483.
- Snowden, D. J., & Boone, M. E. (2007). A leader's framework for decision making. Harvard Business Review, 85(11), 68-76.