Abstract
Jason Roberts suggested that the luck you get is roughly how much you do multiplied by how many people you tell about it. Good work that nobody hears about can't lead anywhere, and a lot of talk about very little doesn't give people much to act on.
Because it's a multiplication, the shorter side counts most. Someone who builds a lot but never shares would get more out of one blog post than another side project. Drawing the two totals as a rectangle shows you which side to work on.
Method
- 01
List what you do
Write down your projects and experiments. Score each for how much you do and how good it is.
- 02
List how people hear about it
Write down where people come across your work, like a newsletter or a monthly meetup. Score how far each one reaches.
- 03
Look at the area
Multiply the two totals. The rectangle shows which side is shorter.
- 04
Grow the short side
Pick moves that lengthen the shorter side, since they add the most area for the effort.
- 05
Log your lucky breaks
When something good comes out of nowhere, note where it came from. Over time you'll see which activities pay off.
When to use it
- You do good work but opportunities keep going to other people.
- You post a lot but suspect there isn't much behind it yet.
- You're new to a field and want people to know you exist.
Common pitfalls
- Thinking of telling as self-promotion. Writing up what you learned is useful to the people who read it.
- Scoring by the effort you put in instead of what other people can actually see.
- Growing the side you're comfortable with while the short side stays short.
- Expecting results in a few weeks. This usually takes months.
Origin and references
Attributed to Jason C. Roberts (2010).
- Roberts, J. C. (2010). Increase your luck surface area. Codus Operandi (blog).
- Wiseman, R. (2003). The Luck Factor. Miramax.