Abstract
Plans rest on different kinds of knowledge. Some facts you can rely on, and some questions you know are still open. There are also things someone in the organisation knows but nobody has said out loud, and surprises nobody can see coming.
The matrix crosses two questions: are you aware of it, and do you understand it? Each quadrant calls for its own response. You rely on what's known, research the open questions, get the hidden knowledge said out loud, and leave slack for the surprises.
Method
- 01
Name the situation
Write down the plan or decision you want to look at.
- 02
Write everything down
Note what you know and what you're unsure about, without sorting it yet.
- 03
Sort into quadrants
Known knowns are facts you can rely on. Known unknowns are open questions. Unknown knowns are things someone knows that the plan ignores. Unknown unknowns are surprises you can only prepare for.
- 04
Probe the hidden quadrants
Ask who would see this differently and what caught you out last time. That's how some unknown unknowns become known unknowns.
- 05
Turn quadrants into actions
Write what you'll do about each quadrant, from relying on the facts to building in buffers.
When to use it
- You're planning a project or launch with a lot of uncertainty.
- Your team feels confident and you want to check where that confidence comes from.
- After a nasty surprise, to work out what kind of not-knowing caused it.
Common pitfalls
- Filing assumptions as known knowns. If nobody has checked it, it's a known unknown.
- Leaving the unknown knowns empty. That's often where the most useful information sits.
- Trying to list the unknown unknowns. You can't, so put your effort into buffers instead.
- Stopping once everything is sorted. Each quadrant needs an action.
Origin and references
Attributed to Donald Rumsfeld, building on the Johari window (2002).
- U.S. Department of Defense (2002). News briefing, Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers, 12 February 2002.
- Luft, J., & Ingham, H. (1955). The Johari window, a graphic model of interpersonal awareness. Proceedings of the Western Training Laboratory in Group Development. UCLA.
- Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.