Abstract
Some problems are easier to attack backwards. Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would make failure certain. Most people find it easy to list ways to ruin something, and a few of those usually turn out to be habits they already have.
The mathematician Carl Jacobi liked to say "invert, always invert", and Charlie Munger made it famous as a way of making decisions. Each failure you list can be turned into a rule, so you end up with a list of things to stop doing. That's often more useful than another list of things to start.
Method
- 01
State the goal
Write what you want to achieve, as specifically as you can.
- 02
Flip it
Ask how you'd make sure it fails. What would guarantee the worst result?
- 03
List the ways to fail
Write down every way you could make it go wrong. Be concrete and a bit ruthless.
- 04
Check yourself
Mark the ones you're already doing, even a little. Those are the most useful findings.
- 05
Turn them into rules
For each failure, write the rule or safeguard that would prevent it. Start with the ones you marked.
When to use it
- A goal is vague and the usual "how do we succeed" brainstorm only produces platitudes.
- You're planning something risky and want to see what could sink it.
- Progress has stalled and you suspect you're getting in your own way.
Common pitfalls
- Listing only dramatic disasters and missing everyday habits.
- Skipping the honest check, which is where most of the useful findings come from.
- Stopping at the list of failures without writing the rules.
Origin and references
Attributed to Carl Jacobi; popularised by Charlie Munger.
- Munger, C. T. (1986). Harvard School Commencement Speech ('How to guarantee a life of misery'). Reprinted in Poor Charlie's Almanack (2005).
- Kaufman, P. D. (Ed.) (2005). Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger. Donning.